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Monday, January 5th:

The Real Open to 2009 - We did finish off 2008 and the first day of 2009 with some nice rallies but the real open to 2009 is about to get under way in a few hours. The traders are back in full force and we will see how this earnings season unfolds. The majority of prognosticators are saying the market will tread water for most of the year and finish the year up slightly. They also, for the most part, say the turnaround will start mid-year 2009. It is probably also safe to say these same people had the exact same prediction for 2008 and look where we ended up. I hope that we can pull out a winning year but I am going to remain a little cautious until the housing and banking mess starts to cleared up.

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Wednesday, December 31st:

One and Done - We have a half a day to go before 2008 is in the books and we can look forward…well at least we can hope 2009 brings us some positive results. The trading, as suspected, has been light so we do not want to draw to many conclusions as to which way the market is going based off the last couple of weeks. I am looking forward to the whole month of January because we have a lot of things going on. We have a new President coming to DC, 4th quarter earnings, hedge fund redemptions (which will be influenced by the Madoff case for sure) and a whole host of other items. You have a Happy New Year!

Tuesday, December 30th:

Hamas and Israel Battle On - You would think that tension in the Middle East would drive oil prices higher and possibly quite a bit higher but not with the death spiral down oil prices are in. I have been listening to people say oil is to low to short now for $40. I still would not touch either side of that trade for a while, but then again trading in itself is not a very profitable business these days. We only have two more days to go to put 2008 out of its misery. And on a lighter note we are closing in on New Years Day, which is a college football fans dream day and I certainly qualify as one of those. I am a Nebraska Cornhusker fan and look forward to them putting a beat down on Clemson.

Monday, December 29th:

Three Blind Mice - There are three days left in 2008 and where we go from now until those three days expire is anyone’s guess. The three blind mice have about as much of a chance of avoiding the farmer’s wife as we do of predicting what will happen the next three days. I imagine the volume will be light again this week just like the previous one. The question is has everyone who wants to get those losses on the books for tax purposes done so. The last week of 2008 is here and the majority of this planet is glad to see it go as economies around the world are suffering. Have a good Monday.

Friday, December 26th:

Closing in on the End of a Sad Chapter - We are closing in on the end of 2008 and what a year it has been. We have seen plenty of stocks crumble 40 percent or more over this last year and 2009 might not be setting up for a banner year. We will start to get a plethora of fourth quarter earnings rolling in early in the New Year. I certainly would not be judging the direction the market is headed over the next couple of weeks. I would wait until the traders get back before making any wagers on 2009. I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas.

Wednesday, December 24th:

Christmas Bear Claw - The bears are not releasing their death grip on the stock market and it looks like Santa has coal on the menu. Today will be a short day of trading and the volume will be light heading into Christmas break. The housing news was absolutely atrocious Tuesday morning so the talk of housing starting to bottom was premature. The Madoff ripoff opened another sad chapter yesterday as one of the big investors in his scam took his own life. If Bernie's goal in life was to make a name for himself, he certainly has only not quite the way he probably imagined it. Well let me send us out on a good note, wishing all of you a happy holiday season!

Tuesday, December 23rd:

Bulls Just Want Their 2 Front Teeth - The bulls have had their backsides handed to them for the whole year so could it be to much to ask to give them a spark coming down the stretch. It certainly looks like the bears want to keep the pedal to the medal. I really thought we would get a Santa rally heading into the new year before the train goes off the tracks, but we have had a nice run the last couple weeks so perhaps we shouldn’t be begging for more. I actually would love to see us test the lows in the not to distance future so I could pick up some more stocks I have had my eye on for a while. We will see if that actually happens but one thing is for sure I have the deck cleared and ready to fire as soon as I see the whites in their eyes.

Monday, December 22nd:

What Will Santa Deliver - This week will be a short one and the volume should be light but that doesn’t mean you need to sit on your hands. You could still make some money going into the new year, but the question is will the bulls or bears win. Our Santa rally started to fade a bit to close out last week, but that doesn’t mean he is leaving us coal this week. I really noticed a lot of vacant shops at the malls this weekend and of course the traffic was light. We could be looking at a lot more retail stores and commercial real estate going belly up in the next few months. That is enough bad news for a Monday, so Santa please deliver some good news this week.

Friday, December 19th:

Bears Awake - Well the bears were back Thursday in full force as the DOW dropped close to 2 and a ½ percent. It should not come as that much of a surprise since the craziness of quadruple witching hour is upon us. We did get some fair news from both Research in Motion and Oracle after the markets closed, but how that impacts the market when we open today is uncertain because of the options expirations going on today. This is the last full week before we close this pig of a year out, so it would be nice to have a good finish.

Thursday, December 18th:

Market Hanging On - Stocks dropped yesterday but after Tuesday’s big rally it was not unexpected. I was hoping the decline would be a little less than what it was but as everyone seems to be saying these days, “it is what it is”. We are closing in on Friday’s quadruple witching hour, which always makes for good TV. It is really hard to tell what will go on over the next two days, but it could get kind of wild. This of course is more of the norm, but the options expiration will enhance it. We have started to see the VIX coming down and that could mean we are getting closer to normal as far as daily swings in the stock market go. Good luck today.

Wednesday, December 17th:

Fed Says Rally Time - The Fed sparked a huge rally yesterday that left SP500 and Nasdaq up over 5 percent. They said they are going to throw everything they have at our economic slowdown, except the kitchen sink. The US dollar sure took a beating after the announcement, but stocks loved it. The great thing about the US dollar tanking before 2008 was the rest of the world was on fire so US companies with a big international presents did great. Now just about every country on this planet is feeling the pain, so how all of this will play out is unsure. I have been saying for some time now that I think we rally to finish off the year before things get difficult again and I am sticking with that prediction.

Tuesday, December 16th:

Will Goldman get Sacked? - The market was kind of sleep walking on Monday waiting for today’s events to unfold. We have two huge items on the plate that will move the markets. The first one will be earnings from Goldman Sachs later this morning. The expectations are definitely low but how bad will the numbers be from them? It would be interesting to see how the market would react if the numbers were better than expected. We could see one remarkable rally, but it certainly would be a long shot. The second item on the agenda will be the FED and what they say about the US economy. The rate cut that most likely will be announced should not influence the market as much as what they say. The market will be opening in a few hours so we will find out soon enough.

Monday, December 15th:

Santa Rally Continues - I am not sure how we closed up on Friday with the auto bailout being vetoed down and the Bernard Madoff's Ponzi scheme for a cool 50 billion but we did. It probably had a lot to do with the rumors that the White House was going to plug the money into the little three. It is pretty impressive the way the market has hung in there with all the bad news coming out. It is just that much more of a reason to believe we will get the Santa rally heading into 2009. I will be watching stocks close after Goldman Sachs releases it earnings on Tuesday. That could be a critical stage in the current bear market rally that is going on.

Friday, December 12th:

Bailout Gets the Boot - The Senate has said no dice for the little three’s bailout and they will have to come up with the money another way. The news certainly was not taken well overseas where the Japan and Hong Kong markets were down over 5 percent after the news broke. It certainly could get ugly this morning when we finally open. I was thinking we would finish the week up strong today, but with this news we most certainly should not see a positive close today. I just wish I had more put options on the table before we open. It will be a fun day so grab some popcorn, sit back and watch the fireworks.

Thursday, December 11th:

House Party - Well the House passed the little three’s bailout package but that was never really the worry. The real test starts now as it moves to the Senate where it could be delayed or flat out not pass. There are several senators, majority on the Republican side, saying they are not going to vote for this bill in its present state. I can truly understand both sides of the argument on letting these three go into bankruptcy or giving them cash. It is a tough call and I hope for our economy’s sake the right path is selected. I highly doubt we get any rally off the bill passing the House this morning when we open, but we could see a slight rally if it does pass the Senate. If we don’t get any more unexpected news, I do think we rally going into the weekend. It will be short lived so I would not be buying a bunch of stocks at this level. They will come down and you will get another chance.

Wednesday, December 10th:

My Kind of Town, Chicago - Some things just seem to go together like peanut butter and jelly, popcorn at the movies, hotdog at a baseball game and Chicago politics with a side of corruption. The Governor of Illinois was arrested for allegedly trying to sell President-elect Barack Obama’s seat in the Senate and a few other items that boggle the mind. He also is under the impression or influence, I am not sure which would best describe his actions, that he has done nothing wrong. As for stocks, yesterday was the end of two days of pretty good returns as the DOW fell almost 3 percent. We had Electronic Arts warn about missing their up coming earnings after the bell yesterday, but I doubt that will really impact how we open this morning. We might need to pull back just a little before rallying some more before the week ends.

Tuesday, December 9th:

Rally Resumes - The rally continued on Monday with the Dow Jones going up another three and a half percent. It could have been the Asian markets, an Obama’s infrastructure play or just because but whatever the reason the rally marched on. We did get some bad news from FedEx and the chip makers, so perhaps the rally will hit the brakes for a day or it could follow the recent trend and that is bad news is good news. The markets will let us know their mood here shortly when we open up later this morning.

Monday, December 8th:

When Bad is Good - While the bad news continues to grow, it seems like stocks just want to kick that news to the curb and go higher. We appear to be getting a nice little bear market rally and it could last through December. We could actually have a calm week relatively speaking for the action we have seen over the last few months. Goldman Sachs reports earnings next week and then we could be all over the map again. I think we will finish off the month in good shape, but once the 4th quarter results start getting posted we could be looking at another collapse. I will continue to be cautious.

Friday, December 5th:

Jobs, Jobs and Less Jobs - The jobs report is due out later today and a bad number looks to already be baked in based off yesterday’s action. The SP500 lost 3 percent but it certainly could have been worse. Stocks actually started to reverse course in the last few minutes of trading to avoid the day’s lows. I called the big move on Monday and I think we have another one in store for us today. The lost jobs will set the tone for sure and over the last week, it seems bad news has perked up the market but a really bad number could send us in a tailspin. I do not know which way we will go today, but I just have a feeling it will be another big one.

Thursday, December 4th:

One for Bad, Two for Good - Once again we were up and down yesterday but we finished with a bang. The NASDAQ posted almost a 3 percent gain despite bad news from Research in Motion. In fact, almost any bad news is good news at least when it comes to where stocks finish lately. We will start today with some employment numbers and they most certainly will be bad but will it be bad enough to derail the rally we have going on. It is easy to get burned on picking spots to buy stocks in a market like this so that is why it is important to buy in smaller increments. It is also a good idea to put tight stops on your stocks when you pick them. You do not want to keep piling on money in a stock that continues to go down hill. We will see what the day brings us.

Wednesday, December 3rd:

Will Santa Bring the Big 3 Cash? - The big 3 traveled by planes, trains and automobiles to Washington to beg for money or Santa will be delivering coal for its shareholders and employees. Chrysler and GM could go belly up by December’s end if they do not get a cash injection. Nancy Pelosi stated yesterday that bankruptcy was not an option so they are getting some money it is just a question of how much and what strings are attached. Whatever action is taken it is likely to give the stocks a boost but I certainly would not be looking to buy them anytime soon in fact it could be a great shorting opportunity. I think we could have a nice little bear market rally on our hands for the next couple of weeks, but then will come the dreaded 4th quarter earnings.

Tuesday, December 2nd:

December Bear Growls - The December wind came blowing through yesterday as the SP500 nearly fell 9 percent. I guess the bears want December to follow the same pattern as the previous three months and that is down. The big or should I say the little 3 go before congress today with their plans on how to get out of the mess they created and beg for money. It, if nothing else, could create some funny one-liners. It still humors me to no end to see members of congress lecture people when they are a big reason we are in this mess. The market will be opening shortly so let the games begin.

Monday, December 1st:

Will Retailers Bounce or Splat - The Thanksgiving weekend has come and gone, so will the retailers get in the black this year? We will certainly find out soon enough. The action last week was great for stocks because the news was bad yet stocks not only held their ground but they rallied in a big way. It will be interesting today to see who wins the battle between the bulls and the bears. The way I see it there are three factors that will influence today’s trading. 1) We have a better idea of how the retailers will do this Holiday Season. 2) We have already had a big rally off the lows and might be due for a large pullback with the traders back in full force. 3) Last, we had the unrest in India that could spook off any huge bear market rally. I think whatever happens today it is going to be a large move in one direction or the other.

Friday, November 28th:

Black or is it Red Friday - Black Friday is here and it traditionally is when retailers go into the black for the year, but this year they could stay in the red all year. The jury is still out on how retailers will do this holiday season with the economy in the shaky situation it is in. The expectation build into them is already low, but is it low enough is the question we are looking to answer. The trading today will be light and is only a half day. Have a great Thanksgiving weekend.

Thursday, November 27th:

Happy Thanksgiving - Stocks wanted to head into Thanksgiving day on a high note and it did by recording another stellar day. This is the 4th day in a row of outstanding gains in the Dow. We continue to have bad news come out so this could be a good sign, well at least for a few days. Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Wednesday, November 26th:

Mo Money Mo Problems - We are tossing more cash, 800 billion to be exact, at the credit crisis we are currently in. That was successful in bringing down mortgage rates short term but will it be enough to loosen things up and get this economy rolling. This question will not be answered for some time now, but one thing for sure it is trashing the US dollar. This new injection had a positive impact on the stock market in the early hours but the fact that we had gone up so much the two previous days started to take some of the steam out of the rally as the day went on. The Dow and SP500 did finish up yesterday, but the NASDAQ finished down half a percent. The action today will probably be minimal since we have Thanksgiving coming up tomorrow but it still could be volatile.

Tuesday, November 25th:

Another Big Up Day - Monday was another big up day for stocks as we continue to put distance on last Thursday’s lows. We, as I expected, saw some huge swings in stocks today and will the rest of the week despite it being a short one. Some of the upswing could have been attributed to Obama announcing his economic team but the major move was more likely due to the Citigroup injection. It is just the latest company to get the US taxpayer to backstop their company. We are going though some tough times for sure and the life jackets on this ship are running low so we better start conserving them for the ones that absolutely need them to keep the US economy afloat or we are all going to sink.

Monday, November 24th:

Short Week - This week is a short one for pretty much everyone in the US. The markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and we have a ½ a day on Friday. It is hard to tell anything from last Thursday and Friday’s action since we had option expiration taking place. Many of the moves could have been people positioning themselves due to the expirations. It might be tough getting a read on stocks this week as well, since it is a short one. This does not mean the week is going to be boring, in fact we probably will get the usual wild 500 point swings throughout the day. It is just I would not try to gauge how stocks are doing based off what happens this week.

Friday, November 21st:

Timber - Stocks are falling like trees in the rain forest. We broke through critical support levels in high volume yesterday but is that enough yet? That is a question many investors are asking themselves as stock insist on going down. The financials just continue to get hammer and Citigroup is on the fast track to zero. They announced after the bell that they are having an emergency meeting this weekend to try to plug the holes in this rapidly sinking ship. We are facing problems in this market we have not seen since the great depression. It is in these times that you need to look in the mirror and say do I have the guts to step in here and buy stocks. It is a tough question to answer but whatever you do, you want to make sure you can sleep at night with whatever decision you go with. The market will be opening up in a few hours so let us hope we get some positive news heading into the weekend.

Thursday, November 20th:

C’est la vie - The DOW finished the day below 8000 yesterday, C’est la vie. This is the third time in the last month and a half we have tested below the 8000 level. Usually not a great sign to hold it again, but this is a strange year for sure. If we do breach the 7900 to 7800 level, we could be looking at a huge drop to the next support level. It is tough to be buying stocks in a market like this, but a few years from now we will be looking back and saying what a great bargain stocks were. If you are buying stocks, and I have been starting to buy a few, you have to purchase lower amounts than you would normally purchase. Try buying just 5 to 10 percent of what you would normally purchase because picking a bottom is impossible and the pain will not be as great with only 5 or 10 in a stock if it falls. And remember you can always make money when stocks fall by buying put options or inverse ETFs. They can help balance out your portfolio until the market settles down.

Wednesday, November 19th:

HPQ Gives Stocks Hope - Investors seem to like what they saw and heard from Hewlett-Packard yesterday because it started the markets off in a good mood. We ended the day higher, after a little dip in the middle of the day, but a positive day nonetheless. The three stooges testified in front of congress after the bell rang in an attempt to persuade them that they need 25 billion to keep GM, Ford and Chrysler alive. I was actually thinking of calling myself a bank or auto manufacture and get in on the TARP. I think I need about 1.8 million of the taxpayer’s money to stay afloat. I promise to pay it back, trust me. Could we possibly have two days in a row to the upside?

Tuesday, November 18th:

Help for the Three Stooges - Larry, Mo and Curly could have run GM, Ford and Chrysler better than the current CEOs, but they were not and now the American taxpayer is in line to bail them out. Harry Reid is moving forward with a plan to loan them 25 billion. It is understandable why we need to bail them out, but we have to demand they change the way they run their businesses before they burn through more of our cash. Stocks suffered another late day collapse yesterday and the major indexes finishing two and half percent down. The SP500 is holding up around the 850 mark but if we break through that, it could be a quick drop to 800. The 800 level is another critical level we will want to hold because if it does not then lookout below. These markets are crazy so who knows what will happen when they open later this morning, but we are getting close to a tipping point.

Monday, November 17th:

Retail Reeling - With Thanksgiving less than two weeks away, it is time to start thinking about Black Friday. This year retailers might want to think about switching the name to “still in the red Friday”. There is no doubt that this will be a down year for most retailers and some might be seeing their last Christmas before shutting the doors for good. When Best Buy signaled that the $hi* was about to hit the fan, then you can bet your bottom dollar it is going to be a tough quarter for plenty of companies. I would not want to be holding stock in many retailers that is for sure. I will look at some possible shorts, but have not decided whom yet. A new week in the markets is here and we will see if the craziness continues.

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* Past performance doesn’t guarantee future return