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Wednesday, July 23rd:

Bad is Good - Well we have reached the twilight zone in stocks. Bad is good appears to be the new theme, at least when it comes to financials. Banks can post abysmal numbers and actual go up and in some cases substantially. This is nothing new of course when it comes to the stock market. There are several reasons why the financials could be moving lately and one is simply valuation. We could have people jumping off the energy and commodity train, or at least reducing the load, and putting some in these broken down stocks. What ever the reason is, I still am not ready to commit any cash to this sector yet.

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Tuesday, July 22nd:

Do You Yahoo, Carl Does - Well Carl is on the board at Yahoo along with two additional seats. He now has three of the seats and will be challenged with the tough task of trying to move members over to his side of the fence. Microsoft continues too only want pieces of the pie instead of the whole thing. I have a feeling it is going to be a long process for the poor Yahoo shareholders.

Today could be a rough one with the poor earnings that were reported yesterday from Apple, Texas Instruments and American Express. There are plenty of big names reporting today, so let us hope they tilt the seesaw in favor of the bulls.

Monday, July 21st:

Norman Fades - Greg Norman gave it a run but in the end it was just to much to ask of the 53 year old. I was sure pulling for him but it was not to be. The question of the day is will last week’s rally fade like Mr. Norman or continue advancing forward? There will be plenty of market moving events going on this week. Will oil continue its sharp decline and will financials continue to move higher? We have another large list of important earnings releases this week including Apple, Texas Instruments, American Express, Bank of America, Merck and Schering-Plough just on Monday alone. Another fun week is about to begin…

Friday, July 18th:

Deuces Wild - The second day in a row of huge gains in the 3 major indexes. It is still unclear if this rally is for real or short coverings but for now who cares. The rally will definitely get tested today with Google, Microsoft and Merrill Lynch not meeting what the street was looking for. On the other hand, IBM reported great numbers. Oil has been sinking like a stone over the last 3 trading days and will impact what happens today in a big way. This week has undeniably been one crazy ride and I would expect the same today as we finish up the week.

Thursday, July 17th:

Start of Rally or Short Covering - What a great day for stocks yesterday! The 3 major indexes were all up over 2 and ½ percent. The question is will the rally continue or was this just short covering? You would have a strong argument for either case.

We do appear to be oversold so a short rally would seem in order. The only thing missing was the VIX jumping up in the low to mid-thirties, but this does not need to happen for a rally to begin. It just would have had more conviction with a little capitulation.

The other scenario, short covering, is a little more complicated but definitely a distinct possibility. Well Fargo had better numbers than most were expecting, so that could have scared some of the shorts into covering positions to lock in those gains or protect themselves. There are a ton of earnings still on the horizon this week and Friday is options expiration. The SEC also will be cracking down on naked short selling starting on Monday, so this undoubtedly changes the playing field. This as well could have started the rally yesterday. In the words of Michael Buffer, “Let’s get ready to rumble”.

Wednesday, July 16th:

All-Star All-Night - The All-Star game went long into the night and it looks like the financial issues could go long into the night as well. We did have some positive news come out of yesterday and that was the VIX pushed above the 30 level. It didn’t stay there, but at least it broke the barrier. I would like to see this get a little higher and actually close above 30 before I commit any more money to this market. There is a mass of earnings coming out today, so once again expect a crazy ride today.

Tuesday, July 15th:

Creeping VIX - The VIX is at 28 and so was Josh Hamilton in the first round of Home Run Derby. Josh hitting 28 was certainly exciting to see, even though he eventually lost. If the VIX could finally break through 30, we could perhaps start getting excited about a rally. I think the rally would be short lived but anything at this point will do.

There are a ton of earnings coming out this week. The important ones coming out today are Intel (INTC) , Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) , Seagate (STX) , and US Bancorp (USB) just to name a few.

Monday, July 14th:

IndyMac Takes a Bite Out of Financials - Today and this week could be setting up for one wild ride. You could have almost certainly said this for any week in the last 6 months, but this one could be special. Here are just a few of the items that will influence the market. Options will be expiring on Friday and that can always make things a little more exciting. Federal regulators seized IndyMac, which is the 3rd largest bank failure in US history. Could this be the beginning of multiple bank failures? It is indeed hard to tell but I am sure we will hear plenty of dialog about it today. The US Treasury will officially come to the aid of Freddie and Fannie. They both have said money is not an issue, but the Treasury has to come out with this statement to save them from going to zero. There is also a plethora of earnings coming out. This might be the kind of week that gets the VIX over the 30 mark, which at least started small rallies this year. Let the games begin…

Friday, July 11th:

GE to Set the Tone - There have been a lot of up and downs this week and I am expecting the same today. GE will report before today’s bell and they could be setting the tone for the day. This stock the past 5 years has spent most of its time between $32 and $38, but has dropped all the way down to the high 20s. You would think we would be getting close to a buying point, but I will wait to see what they say today. Also reporting before the bell is Fastenal .

Thursday, July 10th:

Grin and Bear It - The financials started the late sell off yesterday and boy what a sell off it was. The DOW, NASDAQ and SP500 all dropped over 2 percent. One of the things that is a little scary is the VIX has not reached over 30 yet in the latest decline. The VIX was over 30 in both the January and March lows of this year before a rally started. You do not have to have this to have a bounce but it would be nice to see.

There is not a lot of earnings action today, but retailers June sales report will be released and that could push the market one way or another. We will see if oil slides today or perhaps starts its way back up to the 140s.

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* Past performance doesn’t guarantee future return